The second birth interval in China since 1970s: the role of birth spacing policy

Cuiling Zhang, China Population and Development Research Center
Hongyan Liu, China Population and Development Research Center
Yu Jiang, China Population and Development Research Center

This study describes the trend of second birth interval in China since 1970s using the population monitoring data in 121 Chinese counties and conducts a deep analysis for the impact of birth spacing policies on the second birth interval in China. We show that the birth spacing policy plays a historical role in regulating the people's fertility behaviors and reducing the population growth. Birth spacing policies increase the second birth interval in China. As more and more provinces set the birth spacing, the rising trend of the second birth interval becomes increasingly significant . The second child interval gradually declined since 2005 as a result of the alternation or cancellation of birth spacing policies. As more provinces terminate these policies, the downward trend is more significant . The linear regression also demonstrates that the influence of the second birth spacing on the growth rate of the second birth interval varies with the ways of birth spacing regulation.