Sources and perspectives of mortality reduction in Russia

Elena Zemlyanova, Federal Research Institute for Health Organization and Informatics, Russia
Alla E. Ivanova, Federal Research Institute for Health Organization and Informatics, Russia

In the beginning of the XXI century problems of Russian mortality took their shape of comprehensive complex including extremely low life expectancy, its unprecedented gender differences, stratification of unresolved problems (or not fully solved ones) of different stages of epidemiologic transition. Active policy on mortality reduction started since 2005. During 2005-2014 life expectancy increased by 6.4 and 4.2 years in men and women respectively. The discussion topic is life expectancy growth source: - effect of implemented measures or oscillatory trend of long-term stagnation? Answer determines estimation of perspectives of mortality reduction in our country. Methods and data. Data on age-specific mortality in Russia during 1965-2014 from main death causes according to ICD-10. Methods of component analysis for estimation of input of age groups and causes of death into life expectancy differences within study period. Positive trend of mortality reduction took its shape before adoption and implementation of policy measures in healthcare and was conditioned by living standards’ improvements, reduced unemployment and widening social perspectives. Measures in healthcare increased growth rates and increased length of growth period which compensated worsening situation in economics after 2012. In men the main effect in life expectancy growth was received due to reduced mortality related to behavioural risk factors which lead to expected reduced loss in main risk group – working population. In women not denying importance of healthy behavior, main effect resulted from health care efforts, which expectedly lead to reduced loss especially in elderly. Up to now, sources of growth are depleted due to worsening economic situation and reduced effect of extensive measured in healthcare. Reserves of further mortality reduction are connected with healthy life style, because reduction of mortality from causes that could be prevented by measures of primary prevention estimates from 65% in women to 80% in men of preventable mortality.