Excess winter mortality in Novi Sad, Serbia: evidence from urban population in temperate climate

Daniela Arsenovic, University of Novi Sad
Branislav Djurdjev, University of Novi Sad
Stevan Savic, University of Novi Sad

This paper explored trends in excess winter mortality for urban population in Novi Sad. Analysis covered period from 1998/09 to 2012/13 for total mortality and cardiovascular (CVD) and respiratory mortality (International Classification of Diseases, version 10, codes 0-99, I00-I99, J00-J99). Coefficient of seasonal variation of mortality (CSVM) was used to determinate excess winter mortality and was calculated as difference between the four-month winter mortality and average mortality in preceding (August-November) and following period (April-July). Coefficient of seasonal variation of mortality during the observed period indicated that winter mortality was about 7% higher than mortality during preceding and following periods. Same results was found for CVD mortality (CSVM was 0.07). Respiratory mortality was about 40% higher in winter in regards to other part of year (CSVM for respiratory mortality = 0.4). Still, there is debate why some regions, countries and cities experienced higher winter mortality. As contribution to this question, in this paper winter mortality was related with climate (main temperature). Decreased of average temperature is followed with increase of average number of daily deaths. Declining vulnerability to temperature-related mortality and changes in excess winter mortality are related not only with temperature but also with some other factors: central housing and lifestyle factors.