Fertility changes in Poland - cohort approach

Wioletta Grzenda, Warsaw School of Economics
Ewa Fratczak, Warsaw School of Economics

Poland, as a transition country in the region of Central and Eastern Europe has experienced unprecedented changes in the fertility. Currently the TFR level is very low, ca. 1.3 children per woman, which is below the replacement level. Many studies described the changes in fertility based on the cross-sectional approach. However, the changes of cohort fertility have been described not quite sufficiently. Our paper complements this gap by presenting an assessment of cohort fertility patterns changes in Poland, for generations: 1930-1980. The goal of this study is the analysis of cohort patterns of female fertility in Poland based on the life course approach – staging process. We use data sets from “Female Fertility Survey” 2002 (retrospective survey - sample of almost 264 thousands females, conducted by Central Statistical Office in Poland). As a method we use model of stochastic life tables, developed for the first time for these data. The original software code has been applied for estimation fertility tables based on the Poisson process. The estimated tables deliver full range of parameters describing the fertility behaviour for investigated generations. The biggest changes in the values of state probabilities have been observed in the last two generations, i.e. 1971-1975 and 1976-1980. The changes in state probabilities are caused mostly by the reaction to the socio-economic and cultural transformation in Poland after 1989. Our analysis reveals that the reduction of births rapidly starts for female generations born in 1971-1975 i.e. entering labour market at the time of economic transition.