A mixed logit model analysis of retirees’ residential choices in the Montreal metropolitan area

Guillaume Marois, Université de Montréal
Sébastien Lord, Université de Montréal
Catherine Morency, Polytechnique Montréal

The residential preferences of the elderly are an important issue to be considered in both social sciences and during urban planning. In this study, we attempted to identify the characteristics of the dwellings and neighborhoods that influence the residential choices of the population aged 65 to 74 in the Montreal metropolitan area. We employed a statistical approach combining data from the 2011 National Household Survey and geospatial references to develop a joint form of mixed logit models in order to assess the net impact of selected characteristics. Our results revealed that, the general characteristics of an ideal home of retirees are 3 to 4 rooms, high-rise building, and low-density neighbourhood. We noted that the geographical location of the previous dwelling is an important determinant of the geographical location of the new one, suggesting a strong territorial attachment among the elderly. By stratifying the model with income quintile, we noted that the preferences varied widely as per the socioeconomic profile. Thus, for the lower-class elderly, housing costs are a predominant factor, while condominiums are the preferred tenure mode of the upper class, who also sought to live in a wealthy neighborhood. This segregation dynamic may lead to territorial segmentation, where the upper class seeks to live apart from the rest of the population.