Small-area population projections by socio-economic heterogeneity and residence for the state of Gujarat

Markus Speringer, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Samir K.C., Shanghai University and International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Pramod Singh, Institute of Rural Management Anand (IRMA)

This study is motivated by two research questions: (A) How will changing patterns in urbanization and migration affect the population projection, depending on the spatial scale (state vs. (sub-)districts)?; and (B) How does the accounting of socioeconomic heterogeneity, measured by educational attainment, improve population projections for Gujarat on different spatial scales? Small-area population projections (state and district level) can provide useful information for policy makers to plan and implement policies to allocate budget and resources, but also gives a feedback on how certain policies might affect the population composition they are aimed on. In this study we are looking at the potential impact of recently ongoing economic development policies on the regional population in the Indian State Gujarat. Gujarat is part of a greater political strategy to develop the so called Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor (DMIC) that shall economically further develop predefined 60 Special Economic Zones (SEZs) and 4 Special Investment Regions (SIRs) in Gujarat. These investments will not only provide new economic and industrial infrastructures in urban areas but also attract especially skilled workforce. We aim to show the potential impact of these investments on the socioeconomic population structure and migration patterns in the future by implementing plausible scenario narratives that could mirror the possible demographic future of Gujarat at lower administrative levels and residence (urban/rural). Additionally we will show the impact of such policies on the future urbanization process in Gujarat by implementing an approach that takes also into account the reclassification of rural to urban areas. This allows us to show the potential population development of Gujarat up to 2050 and how and why the consideration of different spatial levels affect the projection of the socioeconomic and urban development.