Demographic factors and regional diversity behind the recent increase of renter-occupied households in Spain: a multilevel exploration

Alda B. Azevedo, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona and University of Lisbon
Julián López-Colás, Centre d’Estudis Demogràfics (CED), UAB
Juan A. Módenes, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona

The increase of the renter-occupied households from 11.4% to 13.5% during the intercensal period 2001-2011 is one of the most prominent results of the last Spanish census, as it represents a turnaround of the traditional homeownership expansion. This paper analyses that evolution from a demographic perspective focusing on the young households and using multilevel modelling techniques to examine two questions: if the recent increase of renter-occupied households implies changes in the hierarchy and intensity of the individual factors that underlie housing tenure status; and if the uneven impact of the last housing and financial boom and bust is related with the current regional diversity in young households’ preference for renting. Therefore, we focus on the women aged 25-34 years-old, living solely with the partner and their children, if any. Using data from the Spanish censuses, 2001 and 2011, and from the official housing prices indexes, two multilevel logistic models were designed to compute the probability of living in a rented dwelling versus the other tenure options. Individual explanatory factors (age, nationality, education attainment level, type of locality, marital status) as well as contextual factors (house price index, metropolitan context, and average age of the population) were considered in two levels, individual and regional (Spanish NUTS3 division, 50 provincias). The results confirm changes in the role of individual factors that explain rental housing choice during the years of 2001 and 2011. At the contextual level, higher probabilities of renter-occupation are found in regions where the housing prices remained more constant over time. At both levels, age (of the individuals and the regional population age structures) is having an increasing explanatory role.