The differences in cohort fertility of Russian women with and without migration experience: census-based estimates

Alla Tyndik, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
Svetlana Biryukova, National Research University Higher School of Economics

The study considers the relationship between internal migration and fertility in Russia. Authors use a sample of 28.2 million women born in 1950-1979 withdrawn from the Russian population Census-2010 database. The data shows that women who have continuously lived in their birthplace since birth have on average lower fertility compared to those who have a migration experience. The authors attribute this to the fact that in Russia internal migrants usually aim to escape from economically depressed areas, and positive effects of these changes overcome negative effects coming from the disruption of their childbearing careers. At that moves within the region have stronger positive impact on fertility than interregional ones, which confirms that migration and fertility are still competing life events. One major exception are migrants heading to the capital cities. Due to the need to adapt to the high competition in every sphere of economic life on the one hand and to the very low fertility norms in the destination region on the other hand they demonstrate lower eventual fertility than their non-migrant compatriots. Spatial analysis of fertility differences between migrant and non-migrant women revealed that regions that loose in fertility due to internal migration are few and they are clustered around the Caucasus Mountains and near the Altai. These are regions just entering the second demographic transition characterized by high fertility together with relatively low average age for motherhood. Overall, authors conclude that Russia benefits from internal migration in terms of eventual fertility.