The causes of regional population change in Russia: a dynamic perspective

Ilkka Henrik Mäkinen, Uppsala University
Liubov V. Borisova, Uppsala University

The population crisis in Russia is well documented. While Russia has developed strong socio-economic regional inequalities, one would expect the presence of regional variation in demographic and health profiles as well. This paper sets out to analyse the simultaneous influence of the socio-economic factors on the marked changes in the population of the federal subjects of the Russian Federation since 1990. The data used is taken from the Russian statistical agency Rosstat for all regions from 1990 till 2009. GLS regression analyses were performed with checks for outliers and autoregressive effects. Several models were run using diverse sets of predictors, splitting the sample by decades (to better understand the changes of the 1990’s vs. 2000’s), and the trajectories of regional development. Controlling for variables whose initial (1990) values have earlier been shown to be connected with subsequent population development It was found that cohabitation patterns and economic factors (inequality and the population living below the poverty line) have the most predominant effects on population change, however, some of the relations are unexpected.