The latest trends of adult mortality in Russia

Victoria G. Semyonova, Federal Research Institute for Health Organization and Informatics, Russia
Tamara P. Sabgayda, Federal Research Institute for Health Organization and Informatics, Russia

In 2005-2014 Russia has experienced the longest positive trends in life expectancy for last half-century: growth rate by 6.4 years observed among men and by 4.1 years among women which resulted to life expectancy 65.3 and 76, 6 years respectively. The aim of the study is to evaluate the changes occurred in the age and nosological aspects of mortality in Russia, as well as the likely forecast of dynamics of losses in the short term. The increase in life expectancy in 2005-2014 was due to major causes and all age groups for which mortality has decreased at least a quarter. The highest rate of death decline was observed among population of 40-59 years old (39.6% and 33.8%). However, in last year (2013-2014) growth rates of life expectancy slowed sharply, reaching 0.1 years in both sexes (against the average annual growth of 0.6 and 0.4 years in 2005-2014). The rate of decline in mortality declined in all age groups of adult population by at least half. These negative developments were determined firstly, by working age population, and secondly, by exogenous death causes. In 2005-2014 Russia's GDP per capita increased by 2.4 times with reductions by more than a quarter in 2008-2009 and by 12.1% in 2013-2014. The recession of 2008-2009 was also accompanied by a sharp slowdown in mortality decrease, but already in 2010 the GDP has recovered, and with it the positive trends of mortality has accelerated. Unfortunately, economic realities of modern Russia do not give grounds for expecting a quick exit from the crisis. On the other hand, today incomes are several times higher than those of the beginning of 2000s. This suggests that the most likely scenario is stagnation in life expectancy; risk group will be working-age population, and losses will be generated primarily by exogenous death causes.