Postponement of the old age threshold: when is the entry into old age?

Maria Bilo, Sapienza Università di Roma

The increase in life expectancy over the last 160 years in developed countries [Oeppen & Vaupel 2002, p. 1029 - 1031] has resulted in an aging population, combined with a decreasing fertility. Industrialized countries face now the consequences of this ageing process of their populations. More and more people reach the old age. For an industrialized country, such as Germany, its economy must seek to increase the longevity of its population in order to retain their welfare state, for example by raising the retirement age. In this respect, it is important to know how long older people are able to participate in the labor market. To answer this question, I conduct a cross-sectional analysis with data from the German Ageing Survey (DEAS) in the years 1996 and 2014. With prevalence rates from the Survey population I calculate the temporary unaffected life years in the physical health and social activity aspect for age groups from 65 to 84. The results show that there is a postponement of the old age threshold from 1996 to 2014. Furthermore, further analyses indicate that there is an absolute compression of morbidity of the survey population between the time points. There could be unused resources in the age from 65 until 84, which Germany may focus on to integrate them more efficient in the labor market in order to face the ageing population and its consequences.