Formation and realisation of migration intentions across the adult life course: evidence from Norway

Sebastian Klüsener, Max-Planck Institute for Demographic Research
Lars Dommermuth, Statistics Norway

In order to enhance our ability to predict future migration patterns, it is highly relevant to further improve our understanding how migration intentions are formed and to what degree they are predictive of future migration moves. This paper makes use of rich data from Norway, allowing us to study determinants of the formation and realisation of migration intentions in different stages of the adult life course, covering individuals from ages 18 to 79+ (N=11,421). The intention information is derived from the Norwegian Generations and Gender Survey (GGS). This survey is well suited to study migration intentions as it also includes questions related to intentions in other life domains such as family or work, which are often related to migration plans. Another advantage of our study is that we are able to link the individual-level survey data with information on these persons from the Norwegian population register. This implies that we are not affected by panel attrition between survey waves. The main focus of the paper are migration intentions and migration behaviour in three specific life stages: young adulthood, family formation phase and the transition into retirement. We investigate if intentions in other life domains are correlated with the formation of migration intentions and whether they have an independent impact on migration behaviour. As methods we use descriptive techniques and logistic regression models. Our results show that migration intentions are relevant for explaining migration moves. But their predictive power varies across the life course and is particularly high in the family formation phase. Our multivariate models indicate that intentions in other life domains are associated with the formation of migration intentions in all three life phases, but to a lower degree with the realisation of migration intentions. Next to this also variables connected to the housing situation are important predictors.