Fertility policy-making in Iran - Presenting a policy proposal by using social simulation and agent-based modeling approach

Seyyed Alireza Nikbakht, Hekmat Reserch Center for Policy Issues
Mohammad Reza Alipour, Universidade do Minho
Mohammad Torkashvand, University of Tehran
Arman Rezayati Charan, Hekmat Reserch Center for Policy Issues
Mohamamd Javad Davari, Institute for Research in Fundamental Sciences

As a main element of population growth, fertility is a subject which has been paid attention. Thus, measurement and identification of fertility rate is one of the important indices in the demographic predictions, which is the infrastructure of developmental planning. Iran has experienced many considerable changes in fertility in the recent decades. The fertility was seriously increased in the first decade but considerably reduced under replacement level in the second decade of the Islamic revolution, so that it was called Fertility Revolution. This research tries to recognize and analyze the most important dynamic elements of changes of fertility in Iran by the social simulation techniques and focusing on the agent-based modeling as a new method in Iranian demographic researches. According to lack of any comprehensive and high-accurate database in the country, it was decided to use a collection of available data in the mixed form. The results showed that the birth rate will be high in country as long as the population peak is included in the fertility ages, leading the population growth rate higher than zero. In the years after 2030 when the population peak will be excluded from the fertility ages, the birth rate will gradually decrease. With regard to other effective factors on the fertility, it was observed that total marital fertility rate is higher than 3 and women under 35 years old higher than the substitute rate. Therefore, decrease of marriage rate is found as the most important factors effective on fertility. The policymakers have assigned the purpose of population programs at increase of fertility to higher than 2, while this research indicates that it is better instead to concentrate on the increase of marriage possibility and try to provide the fields of family formation, according to considering Iranian cultural issues and social lifestyle.