The propensity to having a second child in Romania. An event history analysis approach

Raluca Dana Caplescu, Bucharest University of Economic Studies
Constanta V. Mihaescu, Bucharest University of Economic Studies

Romania is among the countries with medium-low fertility rates (1.41 children/woman in 2013). According to both statistical data and previous studies, the main cause for the decrease in the total fertility rate (TFR) is the drastic decrease in the number of live births, which has practically halved during 1990 and 2014. This is a consequence of the highly inertial mechanism put in motion by the combination between low parity progression rates (PPRs) from first to second birth, and especially from second to higher parities, combined with decreasing population size (particularly for the reproductive segment, which the baby-boomers are preparing to leave). Based on a small-scale survey developed by a team of researchers from the Polls and Surveys Research Centre of the Bucharest University of Economic Studies, the present paper aims at using event history analysis for simulating summary fertility measures like the TFR or parity progression rates for women who gave birth to a second child, taking into account both fixed and time-varying covariates. The main purpose of this analysis is to attempt to shed light on possible measures to be taken in order to encourage second births among young Romanian women.