Emigration of immigrants in Spain: a fictitious arrival cohort analysis

Maria Miyar, Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia (UNED)
Luis Garrido, Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia (UNED)

There have been substantive theoretical developments in the social sciences regarding temporary migrations. However, the quantitative empirical contributions available in the international literature have been less conspicuous. This paper studies outflows size of the foreign-born population resident in Spain and the self-selection in these outflows in terms of educational level, in order to test Neoclassical and New Economics of Labour Migration theories. With this aim, it calculates the attrition in fictitious arrival cohorts using Spanish Labour Force Survey data from 2007. Preliminary results show, first, an increase in the emigration of foreign-born after two years since the beginning of the Great Recession; second, that migrants arrived during the Great Recession do not show any emigration propensity; third, that outflows are concentrated among immigrants with worse educational background, as Neoclassical economics expected.