Micro-Level mechanisms behind the decline and recuperation of period fertility in Spain

Daniel Ciganda, Universitat Pompeu Fabra

The emerging consensus in fertility research places gender dynamics at the center of the explanation of fertility decline and its recuperation. This conclusion is largely based on cross-country comparison of aggregated outcomes, but the micro-level evidence remains scarce and unclear. Recently, an alternative account has been proposed in which the recuperation of period fertility is the expression of the end of postponement and not a result of the a move towards greater gender equity. This discussion allow us to test some hypothesis regarding the mechanisms behind long term fertility trends. While most accounts have remained at the macro level, we us an Agent-Based Model to capture plausible micro level dynamics giving shape to macro level trends. Our model is calibrated using Spanish data but its main components are meant to apply to most European countries.

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Presented in Session 22: Measuring fertility