The determinants of marriage market in Spain at the end of the XIX century. An econometric spatial approach

Joaquin Recaño Valverde, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona
Alessandra Carioli, University of Southampton

The second half of 19th century was a time of great demographic changes in Spain, both in terms of mortality improvements and fertility decrease. However, such changes were far from homogeneous, as the Hibernian peninsula exhibited substantial diversity in demographic characteristics. The literature mostly concentrates on advancements in mortality and on economic determinants that lead to a fertility decline. However little is known on the delicate gender balance at local level, which led to female or male excess in Spain, and that, as a result, deeply impacted nuptiality and childbearing dynamics. The present study aims at providing a view of nuptiality and childbearing dynamics focusing on gender balance in Spain, employing data from the 1887 census for 467 juridical areas (comarcas) of mainland Spain. We employ a spatial-lag regression model to explain variations in fertility and nuptiality, focusing on variables that capture the imbalance in the sex structure, selective migration, celibacy as well as other socio-economic determinants.