Internal migration in the new era of urbanization of China

Yuzhao Liu, Shanghai University
Leiwen Jiang, Shanghai University

China has entered a new phase of urbanization with majority of its population now living in urban areas, while experiencing rapid economic growth and demographic transition as well as social reform. Given a shrinking pool of rural population, rural-to-urban migration as the main driving force for urban population growth in the past decades has declined. Natural population growth and urban-to-urban migration play increasingly important roles for urban growth and spatial urban population distribution across subnational regions. Adopting a multi-regional population projection model, we examine the relative contribution from natural and migratory growth as well reclassification to national urban growth in the past three decades, and project the future changes under different demographic and urbanization scenarios. Using Shanghai as a case study, this paper explores the future migration trends and its implications for socioeconomic development, paying particularly attention to well-being of migrants without local household registration who made major contribution to economic growth of the city but are not integrated into the social welfare system.